Category Archives: Uncategorized

Gas buddy has turned quickly after the Fed minutes.  This means core cpi 2.0 will be possible in mid-Aug.  Even though Fed will do nothing at end of July, there will be talk of bubbles in the minutes on Aug … Continue reading →

Gas buddy keeps falling probably to 3.30 level.   TLT (gas buddy falling) and SPY (anti-taper sentiment) will rise for a while on continued anti-taper sentiment.  This sentiment is highly volatile so not a good bet. However, this is another … Continue reading →

Markets are confused as the Fed talks of taper but the economy and inflation argue for more QE.  There is no clear trend.  When there is no clear trend, wait in cash. Some economists talk about September to December time … Continue reading →

TLT has been in bear mode since December same time as gold.  I would wait for it to X 40 wkma to indicate a new bull market.  Although inflation is low and still falling, QE forces are dominating as with … Continue reading →

Sell all SPY and stay cash for now.  TLT buy opportunity will occur when the TLT:SPY X 10wkma. Remember a twist could be implemented to reduce the bond yields. With so much debt the interest rates have to remain low. … Continue reading →

This will put off risk/off mode until perhaps Aug 9.  For now, stay cash with some SPY….

It’s best to stay cash for now (no TLT and no SPY).  The VIX is now rising and Wall Street is worried about QE shutoff.  Even if the Fed indicates on Jun 19 a hold, the market may still drop. … Continue reading →

I advise selling all TLT and wait for next important CPI on July 16 for next decision point. You can buy more SPY today.

If SPY looks like it is closing up today, it is a good time to buy! It has bounced off the BBd.  The past year it always bounces off the BBd or the 50dma. TLT is also a hold as … Continue reading →

Mortgage bond sell-off has hit TLT.  BUT the way to filter this event is with the No. 1 TLT:SPY chart. When it crosses, its a strong buy.  First possibility is mid-July. Economy is still weak so Fed on Jun 19 … Continue reading →