
see 2007…

Jobs under pressure…new low here Empl-Popn downtrend:
-0.4 over last year

See minute 1:20…

2015 economy was weak (Oil at $10) but jobs strong and USD strong as rates were about to rise.
2013 economy weak but QE so USD down.
2025 Jan econ OK but Fed stopped dropping so USD weakened for 6 months.
TLT and SPY are sometimes correlated but that is not considered “risk off”.
That would be more like risk ON for example 2021 or Nov-Dec 2022 or Nov-Dec 2023.
In 2015, SPY goes down and TLT goes up when RISK OFF…


Below is Nov-Dec 2023…SPY is risk ON


Note TLT is also below the 200 dma so technically in a bear market. RISK ON but still rebounds strongly.