Payroll growth finally weak (0.97%) < 1% YoY and Empl-Popn breaks to new low

see 2007…

Jobs under pressure…new low here Empl-Popn downtrend:

-0.4 over last year

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Auto Loan Delinquencies higher than before 2008

See minute 1:20…

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USD trend=Fed cycle not economy

2015 economy was weak (Oil at $10) but jobs strong and USD strong as rates were about to rise.

2013 economy weak but QE so USD down.

2025 Jan econ OK but Fed stopped dropping so USD weakened for 6 months.

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July Unemployment Rate (UR) up …close to 4.3%

Labor force continues to shrink as well…

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IEF to TECK bullish

2 weeks ago good leading…before spy showed any signs…

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S and P average per month

average level per month

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Inverse Correlation = risk off

TLT and SPY are sometimes correlated but that is not considered “risk off”.

That would be more like risk ON for example 2021 or Nov-Dec 2022 or Nov-Dec 2023.

In 2015, SPY goes down and TLT goes up when RISK OFF…

Below is Nov-Dec 2023…SPY is risk ON

Note TLT is also below the 200 dma so technically in a bear market. RISK ON but still rebounds strongly.

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TLT jul 2025

above 60 dma again…

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Number unemployed for 27 wks+

keeps rising since 2024…growing economy it’s negative.

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UTWO and TECK mid-July

TECK also turns down

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