Credit Flow Investor

Doesn’t look good for bitcoin next year as pressure on bottom 50% increases…

AND liquidity starts to dry up.

GLD goes sideways when SPY weak and Fed on pause.

BUT GLD looks to do at least 20% next year as economy continues to weaken…and 4 drops are ahead.

TECK shows economy continues to weaken…now below 100wkma again.

Still a bull market…

Compared to same time last year…the coming year not so strong for economy or SPY…

I guess budgets and tariffs are over. Now it’s all about cuts or lack-of.

Despite SPY up (av prices) Aug 1.8%, Sep 2.7% and Oct 2.3% (a very good clip at annualized 27%),

Unemployment has risen for 3 months …..

EVENTUALLY, ‘BUBBLENOMICS’ POLICIES FAIL!

90% of the time I don’t believe FED controls long bond market. Money managers do.

Since 1930s, recessions have been inflationary with surges causing a recession.

BUT now asset prices are too high so NOW rents and house prices can both go down which was not the case in 2008 recession or others since 1930s.

Delinquencies up…credit cards lead and mortgages follow 1-2 years later…

AND multi-family (commercial) rising fast from 3% last year to 7% 2025. Offices are at all time high.

4 weeks up for 1 year Treasury. ALSO Q3 SPY +12%.

Fed has dropped inflation and unemployment and now is worried about SPY.

Return has been too strong.

This makes the recession worse than would have been taking longer to play out.

Longer term see ROC -10% means 2 drops and -20% means 4 drops.

Carvana also weakening 6 weeks down….

still above 12 and 40 wkma…both slopes up. Last year same time was a big downward slope.

ROC 52 is positive. Push to 92 by 2nd week Dec.

TLT to oil bullish since August…