Credit Flow Investor

After 2020-2024 boom, now 2025 down.

More concentration of economy at the top….

And weaker yet in 2026 ….0.5% growth.

This also says SPY will be 0% next year as growth is dying and Fed drops on pause in Dec.

TLT reflects the Fed pausing in December and having a downward reaction -2.5.

BUT is now due to go sideways 90-91 during November. Push to 93 or 93.50 in December.

TLT now has an upward slope in Sep and Oct.

Certainly not high inflation…compact cars -5%…

Looks like Fed is becoming worried about this parabolic behavior of tech stocks.

Hence, why no drop in Jan…regardless of rising unemployment or lower inflation.

Tech and Gold stocks thought rising unemployment was great for them as Fed would drop rates downwards in a straight line.

In Oct, drop was -18%. And there was a big signal the last 2 weeks of Feb before the big drop in Mar-Apr -42%. Last year ytd Oct +390% and this year +61% YTD.

Notice it slows in Aug then sideways Sep then fall -18% in Oct…

OF COURSE, money velocity has died from the peaks of 2022!

With large debts and high prices, asset deflation over 3 years is the outcome

with many prices also deflating. CPI deflation will occur at the end of 2028 just before QE.

New FR 3.83

so -0.1 is 3.73.

Upside almost over but will last 4-5 wks before resuming downtrend.

The gap between Fed rate and 1 year Treasury can close to -0.1.

2 year or 100 week moving average…

With QE 2021 it rises about 15%…a lot more in 2008.

Costco represents top 50% spending in America as many doctors/medical and lawyers also shop there…

Last year in December Costco was up +35% YoY.

Of course, economy was booming in Q1 2025! And for most of 2025…

OEX loses momentum last 8 weeks…best days of August are over AFTER the rate drops…

Looks like Fed doesn’t want to spend their “bullets” that fast.

Market was wrong…no straight line drops!

I suspect that’s why you get a 0% in SPY next year and it makes sense.

When economy is weak (compare COST +35% 2024 to now +6%)

and Fed pauses…WATCH OUT!

This explains GDX collapse last week as well…

Also note last week Fed Futures was wrong…it said 57% for drop and 41% for pause.

Now look…even their table about last week is indicated WRONG!

GDX showing a rising deflationary force…

The best days of gold are behind it…SPY and GLD returns and estimates…