Credit Flow Investor

Down -1.1% for last 4 weeks (based on 5d average weekly price).

Below 2% growth…less next year.

Bubbles eventually pop as debt efficiency dies and money velocity falls.

More and more debt is required to keep growing asset prices.

When asset prices stall, growth dies rapidly. Nov. S&P growth YoY in 2024 +32%, 2025 +14%.

So 43% of 14% means 2026 growth … 2%-5%. GLD would be +20% slowing down.

MONEY VELOCITY BOOMED IN 2022…2025 has falling efficiency.

Houston is oil workers and Colorado Springs is real estate finance and construction. It’s clearly not government.

Foreclosures mean no buyers.

Home Depot down YoY -16% …40 wk X 100 wkma…Last Nov +34%

This year Sep core inflation lower at 0.22…

Trend of inflation to 0.2…so temp rise from SPY over.

Walmart much better but slowing down +20% vs +80%.

AND lastly SPY YoY down from Nov +33%,,,

Big surge was 2021-2024…

Looks like Fed will cut in Dec…

AND 1 year treasury 3.6% …

Jan pause …

Probability Oct 22 moves from 41% to 67%…

SPY at 0.1% for Nov month…last year was 2.37%.

Weekly…ON THIS SUPER-CYCLE, YOU NEED 12wk X 100 wk…in Dec will happen.

As economy weakens similar to 2019, Bonds and GLD both go up.

Stocks look like +12% this year so trend next year is +0-2% – GLD to slow down +20%.

Bonds starting to gain on stocks since Oct.

AND also for Baby Boomers real estate…which 53% now show decline.

Reverse wealth effect now taking effect for weak economy 0.5% next year

for both Millennials and Baby Boomers.