Credit Flow Investor

so hiring has slowed way down…and 5 more down years to go….

Honeymoon is over…

Here is what Conterra, an agricultural lender, had to say:

“Lenders are reviewing everything from crop budgets to collateral before backing loans. Results from the American Bankers Association’s 2024 Ag Lender Survey show that just 58% of farm borrowers are projected to remain profitable this year, down sharply from 78% in 2023. That drop reflects a mix of pressure points: softer commodity prices, lingering cost inflation, weaker off-farm income in many rural areas, and increasingly erratic weather.”

Farmers are having a much harder time finding a bank to refinance their loans when they come due, if they lack the capital to repay in full.  This is often when the family farm is lost.

Farmers usually borrow at the start of the growing season to buy inputs and replay their loans when they sell their crops. 

However, in 2025, farmers expect to lose $100 for each acre of corn they grew.  Soybean prices are also down significantly.

And 160,000 farms have been lost between 2017 and 2024, according to the USDA.  Many more losses are on the horizon.

Other good links…

Net Food Importer

Race to Bottom in Quality

Cattle highest income now…but also high price…

Domino’s bear market since September…

Costco bear market as of August…

consumer under pressure including high end as many shop there now…

Ratio to SPY…leading

Domino’s below 100wkma…

Urban elite also have less…LULU down again since June…

60 day points up nicely…and williams stays mostly in the green.

NOW also change, inflation will stay sideways at 3% next year with 3 big monthly up and downs.

Q4 SPY will be +3%. No correction in SPY until Q2 2026. Based on Oct, no way January.

TLT will move up $3 per drop or $101 by end March.

Fed will pause after March drop (5 drops).

Inflation sideways at 3% next year…

The cycle is 2026-2028.

SPY has slowed down from July but will be up 15-16% for the year…

Economic Growth will be lower next year 0.5%. It has fallen 0.6% since April.

A house of cards falls off the cliff suddenly.and usually in an election year.

Rate drops are pushing it up. all emas are moving up. The 60dema has crossed the 200 dema.

Close to YoY positive as well..

starting to outperform spy…

weekly oil broke $60….