Credit Flow Investor

Weekly…ON THIS SUPER-CYCLE, YOU NEED 12wk X 100 wk…in Dec will happen.

As economy weakens similar to 2019, Bonds and GLD both go up.

Stocks look like +12% this year so trend next year is +0-2% – GLD to slow down +20%.

Bonds starting to gain on stocks since Oct.

AND also for Baby Boomers real estate…which 53% now show decline.

Reverse wealth effect now taking effect for weak economy 0.5% next year

for both Millennials and Baby Boomers.

Doesn’t look good for bitcoin next year as pressure on bottom 50% increases…

AND liquidity starts to dry up.

GLD goes sideways when SPY weak and Fed on pause.

BUT GLD looks to do at least 20% next year as economy continues to weaken…and 4 drops are ahead.

TECK shows economy continues to weaken…now below 100wkma again.

Still a bull market…

Compared to same time last year…the coming year not so strong for economy or SPY…

I guess budgets and tariffs are over. Now it’s all about cuts or lack-of.

Despite SPY up (av prices) Aug 1.8%, Sep 2.7% and Oct 2.3% (a very good clip at annualized 27%),

Unemployment has risen for 3 months …..

EVENTUALLY, ‘BUBBLENOMICS’ POLICIES FAIL!

90% of the time I don’t believe FED controls long bond market. Money managers do.

Since 1930s, recessions have been inflationary with surges causing a recession.

BUT now asset prices are too high so NOW rents and house prices can both go down which was not the case in 2008 recession or others since 1930s.

Delinquencies up…credit cards lead and mortgages follow 1-2 years later…

AND multi-family (commercial) rising fast from 3% last year to 7% 2025. Offices are at all time high.