Credit Flow Investor

Sloping down….negative social mood.

BUT these surges last 2 weeks then fall….see March 2022

First SPY -ve in 9 months….transition to -ve since last Feb.

5 wks below 100 wkma…last X Apr 2023.

AND dispersion…standard deviation falls

In Dec 2012, I made this post …

Nowadays I would sell 0cpn if risk ON.

And here VERY OBVIOUS by Jan especially… TLT to SPY 2012-2013

Close to new high…TIP 119-120 by Dec.

Pause has slowed SPY…

End Nov previous 12 wks was +6%. So slowing rapidly…

Macd points down since November…

WS likes to switch to oil and gold when spy has difficulties-see 2019. In 2018, SPY fell -20%.

All can go up this year BUT SPY will not be the priority.

Except for bear markets and recessions, I prefer it when Fed is in ‘inflation fighting’ mode.

Payrolls will not be a priority this year like the previous 2 years.

Oil can rise from Jan-Apr before Fed stops it.