TIPs are a leading indicator

Posted on January 14, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor

Last 6 months…

AND before…2022-2024 strong economy. 2025 weakness starts..

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Corporate Bonds Start to Dry Up

Posted on January 14, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor

The credit flow slows dramatically…

AND ABS…4th Qtr way down.

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Core Inflation Slightly Up over Dec 2025

Posted on January 14, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor

Inflation still at 0.24 …last year 0.21

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Year End PE ratio 39.8 and other consumer data..gas buddy down last 3 months

Posted on January 11, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor
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TLT up YoY 2.89% vs -10% last year

Posted on January 10, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor
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Gov’t Job Growth less than ADP

Posted on January 10, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor
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As predicted, pause in Jan and also March….IEF 4wk +

Posted on January 10, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor
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10y Break Even Yield trends down since Oct

Posted on January 7, 2026 by Credit Flow Investor

10y TIPS-10y shows inflation pressure…

Longer term…

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Bitcoin BTC goes sideways -9% YoY …liquidity starts to dry up like 2022

Posted on December 29, 2025 by Credit Flow Investor

BTC has 2X beta of SPY and has gone sideways since October.

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WMT last year +75%…this year +22%

Posted on December 27, 2025 by Credit Flow Investor

OR 0.3 of last year…so next year +7%.

When the stock surges big one year…the increase drops big the next year.

Euro starts to move up…weakening US economy. Growth started to falter in 2025….

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