"1 The hunter stalks and reacts. He doesnt predict. 2 Can't control emotions only avoid them. 3 Use springs not lines. 4 Buy the 'dips' until recession." 5. Paul slovic too much info bad. Don't drown in noise.
Here is what Conterra, an agricultural lender, had to say:
“Lenders are reviewing everything from crop budgets to collateral before backing loans. Results from the American Bankers Association’s 2024 Ag Lender Survey show that just 58% of farm borrowers are projected to remain profitable this year, down sharply from 78% in 2023. That drop reflects a mix of pressure points: softer commodity prices, lingering cost inflation, weaker off-farm income in many rural areas, and increasingly erratic weather.”
Farmers are having a much harder time finding a bank to refinance their loans when they come due, if they lack the capital to repay in full. This is often when the family farm is lost.
Farmers usually borrow at the start of the growing season to buy inputs and replay their loans when they sell their crops.
However, in 2025, farmers expect to lose $100 for each acre of corn they grew. Soybean prices are also down significantly.
And 160,000 farms have been lost between 2017 and 2024, according to the USDA. Many more losses are on the horizon.
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Credit Flow Investor 