Credit Flow Investor

Q4 SPY will be +3%. No correction in SPY until Q2 2026. Based on Oct, no way January.

TLT will move up $3 per drop or $101 by end March.

Fed will pause after March drop (5 drops).

Inflation sideways at 3% next year…

The cycle is 2026-2028.

SPY has slowed down from July but will be up 15-16% for the year…

Economic Growth will be lower next year 0.5%. It has fallen 0.6% since April.

A house of cards falls off the cliff suddenly.and usually in an election year.

Rate drops are pushing it up. all emas are moving up. The 60dema has crossed the 200 dema.

Close to YoY positive as well..

starting to outperform spy…

weekly oil broke $60….

Oil will not spiral out of control.

See services ism prices the last 3 years….

And services inflation was low with stocks from Feb and Mar but then accelerated….

And even Fed Futures is split….

looks like its on the way to 3.3% by end of November…

1 year shows hiccups …months ahead…

For spy drops, oil weekly is a good leader…