Credit Flow Investor

End Nov previous 12 wks was +6%. So slowing rapidly…

Macd points down since November…

WS likes to switch to oil and gold when spy has difficulties-see 2019. In 2018, SPY fell -20%.

All can go up this year BUT SPY will not be the priority.

Except for bear markets and recessions, I prefer it when Fed is in ‘inflation fighting’ mode.

Payrolls will not be a priority this year like the previous 2 years.

Oil can rise from Jan-Apr before Fed stops it.

It was an economy based on real estate and construction and immigration.

Since Nov bearish…

ALSO NEGATIVE cash flow for 2025.

50% of tariffs to go under new categories.

Refund would be a ‘mess’ so new ruling means do what you want. No comment=No refunds.

My comment…Government needs to pay our supreme court paychecks so keep your new taxes.

Headline from wolfstreet…

Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA-Based Tariffs, Doesn’t Rule on Refunds (“Likely to be a ‘Mess’”)

In his dissent, Kavanaugh said: “Refunds of billions of dollars would have significant consequences for the U. S. Treasury. The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers. But that process is likely to be a ‘mess,’ as was acknowledged at oral argument.”

Over half of the tariff revenues have been generated by the IEEPA tariffs. The rest of Trump’s tariffs, based on different laws, were not before the Court.

The administration has said in the past that if these tariffs under IEEPA were ruled illegal, it would switch tariffs to various other tariff acts, including those it has already invoked for its other tariffs.

My comment…tariffs are just 8% of profits. New tariffs are 30B per month….old tariffs 10B. The difference is 20B or 240B per year. Corporate profits are 3.0T so 8% of profits.

They could be removed just before election in 2028 (perhaps 1 week up mkt) to no avail as bear will be in full force.

Slowing since November…

Weekly average 0.11% down …from 0.45% average (2023-2024)

From

https://podcastindex.org/podcast/440470?episode=48111284089