For april, VIX was below the 12dma except for the first 2 days and spy was above the average. Both were bad for TLT. Inflation also rose the last 3 months.
When QE is off, have to wait for TLT dump (-$5) in December 2014 after the Fed meeting. Rebounds require a fall whether its a SPY or a TLT rebound.
If interest rates rise in Aug/Sep, there will be a fall in TLT initially followed by a rally. CCPI should be on downtrend.
TLT pulled back on Thurs but will surge on Monday due to bad payrolls. Plan is to hold until Apr 30 (end of month surge) and Fed meeting Apr 29.
A new criteria is added that VIX HA (the average VIX) be above 15 to play TLT. This was true in December and January.
VIX HA can be found as trading link 2.
If you have TLT hold..if not buy after FED meeting Mar 18 when
VIX GHA
TLT GHA
SPY RHA
at open
Symmetry concept:
if qe, play SPY not TLT
No QE, play TLT not SPY as spy can correct 15% easily without QE
TLT turned RHA at the beginning of the month. If TLT turns GHA on Monday along with VIX GHA and SPY RHA, then it is close enough to Fed meeting to buy TLT. Wait for close price on Monday.
TLT in play again as it has levelled the last 4 days. The next key is upward momentum. This occurs when VIX is GHA and SPY turns RHA in the lead up to the fed meeting (this is key).
SPY can go below 12dma on PMI day but rebound the following. It seems the second Monday at open provides best clear signal.
OHLC bars show open above the line on Dec 8 and below line at close.
HA shows red at open on Dec 8. So second Monday at open would be best time to buy TLT.
Watch for VIX to X above the 12dma on Mar 3 but also the following Monday Mar 9.
VIX is low at 13 so ready for a new spring…
Also VIX HA after PMI day:
Looks like TLT has turned. Remember TLT is still the bull market with QE off…
TLT has X 12dma as well.
Still waiting for VIX GHA at the close and also SPY RHA to confirm.
With RSI at 32, TLT will take a month to ‘spring’. So the first entry will be Mar 19 or a few days later if VIX GHA, TLT GHA, and SPY RHA. Last run took place after the fed meeting on Sep 17. So likely to go sideways until Mar 19 after the Fed meeting (Mar 18).
RSI needs to be 50 for a spring to take.
CNBC talks of interest rate rise. Reading between the lines it means continued no QE
Clearly not see gross inflation below!!!
This keeps TLT in bull mode…
Below is the 12dma . Flat so far this week…looking for Xover (at close).
Credit Flow Investor 