Looks like TLT again next week when VIX GHA, TLT GHA and SPY RHA on /after Feb 18 Fed minutes. Can buy at open when SPY shows 
RHA!
You can buy at open and sell at Fed meeting close Mar 18! The signal in Dec as seen above showed entry on Dec 30! The ‘RSI spring’ is now in place and SPY RHA at open is the signal along with (VIX GHA, TLT GHA).
In order to avoid whipsaws as seen on Jan 8 and 14, wait for economic data to wash through first before buying. All the best buy spy decisions are mid to end of month anyway.
With QE off, signals are consistent after the econ data washes through or mid-month. For example, buy TLT end of Dec (TLT GHA and VIX GHA and SPY RHA) and sell on Friday Jan 16.
Plan is to watch for VIX RHA at the open on Feb 13, 16 and 17. Sell Feb 23-25 when VIX HA turns to a small red. SPY should be GHA at the close.
See rebound strategy below…
ROC -4 or more is needed in the picture for consistent signals. This month had inconsistent signals and the ROC was mostly +1/-1 during the month.
To play SPY rebound ROC -4 is necessary to consistent signals…HA . I am raising the ROC to the first trading level.
Currently, -3 indicates next week great for consistent signals. When VIX RHA and SPY turns GHA at the open, it will be time to play for 2 weeks rebound. Sell will be when VIX turns slight red and spy slight green at the close.
The SPY rebound will also cause TLT to retreat back to RSI 60 levels and setup the next TLT run. So TLT could be a buy after SPY rebound about Feb 23/24. TLT would then be a play for 4 weeks to March 20.
In addition, the 200dma is 196 and when this is crossed a lot of selling will occur!
TLT is still OB with very little energy left at this time (it may still go higher but very little as most of the price is built in). SPY is losing steam rapidly and can fall into OS territory quickly next week or the following week. This will be the ‘spring’.
Plan is to play SPY rebound after OS (watch for SPY GHA at the open and VIX RHA). Rebound will be faster than recently (7-9 days only) as this will be a bear market rally. Once SPY crosses 195 it will officially become a bear market.
Most likely TLT will also be RHA at the time of SPY rebound. Money will flow into SPY from TLT at that time and TLT will fall. Once TLT shows a turn (at RSI 60), back to TLT perhaps 3rd week Feb.
I have added RSI to TLT and SPY HA links. RSI is important for a spring effect that I will call ‘RSI spring’. RSI needs to start low in order for TLT to have a good ‘run’. VIX GHA, SPY RHA and TLT GHA are also necessary.
For now TLT is heavily OB (overbought). Will most likely rise; however pullback will be strong with such an OB condition. It’s better to wait for RSI 60. See most recent TLT runs (Sep 22, Dec 8, Dec 30).
I understand that this condition exists now BUT being OB indicates too much risk to buy at this time.
A possible source of pullback will be Draghi on Wednesday.
The total pullback could be (until QE starts again):
15% on SPY to 177 and 0.9 TLT:SPY ratio…TLT to 159
which would be significant and therefore take some time to fulfill the pullback.
If it it takes some time, it may take 2 fed meetings to accomplish. Corrections/runs could occur in early Feb and also in late March/early April before reaching the levels mentioned above. In the last 3 months, TLT has had 3 runs: Sep 22, Dec 8, and Dec 30. There may be 2 more runs in order to achieve the 159 level. Why so long? Consider how long the run of SPY has been that is 2 years and the ‘taper’ for 1 year.
The time for signal is the day after Fed meeting (Dec 17)..see SPY in December:
Notice the SPY rally is limited 203.50 to 208.50 or $5 run and 7 trading days. This is due to QE ending so the big plays will be TLT until QE starts again potentially Mar / early April announcement.
VIX GHA
TLT GHA
and
SPY RHA
Time to go to TLT again
Ultimate price 149-152 by mid-Feb.
Of course, no SPY buying until 10-15% correction and SPY hits GHA…. This should be the 1-2nd week of February!
Looks like SPY will rise for 1 week, retrace, and stabilize before Fed meeting. Then down again when QE is not forthcoming (Jan 28). QE will not be announced then as:
1) SPY has not corrected 10-15%
2) Core inflation still not bad at 1.7
3) The Fed has been slow to respond this year despite other corrections. They have maintained the taper policy and will maintain the no QE at this time and ‘react’ when necessary after a market correction. Their employment levels are satisfactory.
Europe may still go ahead with QE but not the Fed. QE in Europe (and not the Fed) will lead to a stronger $ and reduced SPY performance, corporate earnings, etc…
As TLT will be a bull market until QE is announced, TLT is the play. For now cash, then TLT on 1st VIX GHA after or same day as Fed meeting. So another entry for TLT before QE is announced, perhaps even another although a resistant and higher VIX indicates a correction is soon to be felt on SPY.
From yesterday’s chart, TLT can be seen to rise above the BBw and then pullback for a week and start up again. The slope of the top of the BBw is accelerating. In November perhaps $2, December-Jan $7, and Jan-Feb $10+? The top of the BBw would then be about 139 in Feb with a daily level of $142. This would be the ‘topping’ level for TLT in Feb.
Also the TLT:SPY ratio hits 0.9 to 1.0 before a turnaround to SPY happens. For now a mild uptrend with no switch to SPY indicated…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT:SPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p58077737297
So the biggest SPY corrections occur when
1) QE is shutoff (now)
2) Economy not so great (see now with Oil and Gas Buddy)
3) After the Fed meets (Jan 28) and Wall Street hears no QE, they react aggressively down.
for now sell tlt and stay cash
Things may oscillate every 1 -2 weeks but I still believe a re-entry to TLT is possible in a few days!
1) TLT still above 12dma
2) VIX still high at 17-18
3) Generally a correction of 10-15% is required before QE is engaged. The Fed needs to ‘reload’ and in order to do so the market needs to correct first.
Every pullback has led to new strength so we could get a temp pullback for 1 week
VIX GHA
TLT GHA
SPY RHA
so buy TLT melt is coming!!!
Credit Flow Investor 