Houston is oil workers and Colorado Springs is real estate finance and construction. It’s clearly not government.
Foreclosures mean no buyers.
Home Depot down YoY -16% …40 wk X 100 wkma…Last Nov +34%
This year Sep core inflation lower at 0.22…
Trend of inflation to 0.2…so temp rise from SPY over.
Walmart much better but slowing down +20% vs +80%.
AND lastly SPY YoY down from Nov +33%,,,
Looks like Fed will cut in Dec…
AND 1 year treasury 3.6% …
Jan pause …
Probability Oct 22 moves from 41% to 67%…
SPY at 0.1% for Nov month…last year was 2.37%.
Weekly…ON THIS SUPER-CYCLE, YOU NEED 12wk X 100 wk…in Dec will happen.
As economy weakens similar to 2019, Bonds and GLD both go up.
Stocks look like +12% this year so trend next year is +0-2% – GLD to slow down +20%.
Bonds starting to gain on stocks since Oct.
AND also for Baby Boomers real estate…which 53% now show decline.
Reverse wealth effect now taking effect for weak economy 0.5% next year
for both Millennials and Baby Boomers.
Doesn’t look good for bitcoin next year as pressure on bottom 50% increases…
AND liquidity starts to dry up.
GLD goes sideways when SPY weak and Fed on pause.
BUT GLD looks to do at least 20% next year as economy continues to weaken…and 4 drops are ahead.
TECK shows economy continues to weaken…now below 100wkma again.
Still a bull market…
Compared to same time last year…the coming year not so strong for economy or SPY…
Credit Flow Investor 