200 dma points up again in August…

May-Jul weakness ends. SPY will start to have trouble.

In Feb, bonds started to move up ROC60 + and trouble happened in SPY Mar and Apr (Earnings’ Season).

When SPY has big trouble, it’s in earnings’ seasons.

IEF also up near breakout of 96.50

Bi-wkly is added after july monthly..

Bi-wkly oil drops 5%…

Starting Oct 2024 CPI was moving below PPI putting profits under pressure.

Profits were under pressure all during 2022 until Jan 2023 when profits soared

because CPI consumer prices were well above producer-wholesale prices.

NOTICE the CPI moves under PPI 1 year ahead of the S&P and vice-versa.

Jan 2017 it moves below and 2018 the stocks fall -20% OR

Jan 2021 it falls rapidly and 2022 the S&P falls -20% OR CPI-PPI rises rapidly during 2022

and S&P pops big in 2023.

AND NOW monthly (annualized)

How are economy/asset prices doing ? Easy…check the S&P average prices BUT by quarter.

As you can see below, it becomes quite clear…

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On!’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.”

― Calvin Coolidge

weekly…

Monthly…

based on average daily close price…

And all lines point up again 2y Treasury since mid-July…

Oil trends down…bi-wkly oil daily close average…

The change is more dramatic…and signal recession