Now that gasoline is in ‘play’…the pre-recession has arrived and WS plays both gasoline and OIL as well as SPY.

‘Reversals’ are now possible especially with gasoline +10% in 1 week.

BUT SPY upside is now limited.

AND S and P momentum dying weekly 0.9%….2.57 SD on 4wk monthly SPY

Scenario 1-

SPY 0.5 SD at end of May or +2% followed by reversal in June.

TLT moves up the last 2 weeks of May.

Scenario 2-

SPY -1 SD at end of May -4%

No increase in rigs or oil demand …still 25% slack in the system.