If I were the FED, I would plan on 2 more hiccups this year to bring CPI under 3.0

CPI will hit 3.7 YoY in April.

And of course, the only way to have CPI < 3.0 is no drop in Sep.

Many years have 2 runs or 2 hiccups! (to try to bring inflation under control)

Hiccups where Oil and SPY drops:

  1. May-Jun
  2. Sep-Oct (this means no drop in September!)

After each hiccup, SPY and Oil rebound but the economy is left weakened.

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