Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Completed construction crosses the -10% threshold in April like 2007… Economy weakening…Once again, Jan 2024 bullish but by Mar 2025 bearish as well as oil…

AND monthly claims bad… IT ALWAYS takes time for optimism to come off…since april it has been accelerating… https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=10m6s

YoY looks good compared to last year…

BUT of course, it won’t spread from there! Only 1 year into downturn and new homes discounted by 30% Florida like Toronto condos… AND yes I already knew that builders continue to build into the downturn but less and less … Continue reading →

ASSET PRICES lead the economy as I have been saying for 10-15 YEARS! For example, 10 spend $50 or $5 each 60 spend $20 or $0.33 each RELATIVE SPENDING of top 10% to bottom 60% =5/0.333=15 times !!! In 20 … Continue reading →

From Ed Dowd below, Risk off….trade of the year US Treasuries bonds.

Last week UTWO started the move…this week IEF. Mar-May upward slope….

Quote from sidebar… How Low Will Rents Go? | Canada Real Estate Much lower than today. Landlords need to know that rents are FALLING in Southern Ontario, same in Vancouver although not as bad. So many reasons: Bad Economy, Immigration … Continue reading →

I liked her back in 2007 and 2008 even 2009…some recent links… She was the only one I would see at gold bug conventions as she was the only one there who liked US treasuries. I believe it was the … Continue reading →

Notice on May 1 the utwo moved FIRST then IEF followed. A key concept is ‘negative wealth effect’. The XHB downturn leads the economy and leads to ‘negative wealth effect’.