Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Big surge was 2021-2024…

Looks like Fed will cut in Dec… AND 1 year treasury 3.6% … Jan pause … Probability Oct 22 moves from 41% to 67%… SPY at 0.1% for Nov month…last year was 2.37%.

Weekly…ON THIS SUPER-CYCLE, YOU NEED 12wk X 100 wk…in Dec will happen.

As economy weakens similar to 2019, Bonds and GLD both go up. Stocks look like +12% this year so trend next year is +0-2% – GLD to slow down +20%. Bonds starting to gain on stocks since Oct.

AND also for Baby Boomers real estate…which 53% now show decline. Reverse wealth effect now taking effect for weak economy 0.5% next year for both Millennials and Baby Boomers.

Doesn’t look good for bitcoin next year as pressure on bottom 50% increases… AND liquidity starts to dry up. GLD goes sideways when SPY weak and Fed on pause. BUT GLD looks to do at least 20% next year as … Continue reading →

Still a bull market… Compared to same time last year…the coming year not so strong for economy or SPY…

I guess budgets and tariffs are over. Now it’s all about cuts or lack-of.

Despite SPY up (av prices) Aug 1.8%, Sep 2.7% and Oct 2.3% (a very good clip at annualized 27%), Unemployment has risen for 3 months ….. EVENTUALLY, ‘BUBBLENOMICS’ POLICIES FAIL!

90% of the time I don’t believe FED controls long bond market. Money managers do.