Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Lennar and DHI DHI peaked in 2006 (homebuilders are leading indicators). Stocks had problems in 2007 and 2008.

Housing stocks confirm downtrend 12 wk crossing the 40 week…1st time in 2 years.. VIX still moving up…52 weeks +28%

https://str.com/press-release/us-hotel-results-week-ending-11-january 5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): https://www.hotelmanagement.net/operate/costar-us-hotels-report-slowest-adr-revpar-growth-4-years BDI in Jan 2024 +140% BDI Jan 2025 -49% Economy weakening…even in last quarter Q4 2024 SPY quarterly slowdown… Oil back down in Jan and M1 money supply … Continue reading →

Spending will start to suffer when markets start to gyrate 10%… ABNB had a good 2023 and 2024. BUT NOW is in bear market for 6 months…future not so bright.

The base VIX and max VIX are shown in table below. By the end of the year base VIX will be 20. And maximum will be VIX 30.

I have read that Inflated bubble stocks should be sold with a PEG of 3.0. From investopedia… What Is the Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio? The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate … Continue reading →

Clearly market is worried now…VIX up 53% YoY.. Dividend growth now negative Q3 2024…more bad news for stocks…

This is key to delinquency rates rising… When this number rises recession is around the corner…

Unemployment starts up the year after construction peak (2006 and 2024). See spike in construction unemployment in Feb 2007. Construction wages are very high and each unemployed is equivalent to 3 additional jobs. Wage growth is slowing now to 4%…