Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

The best recession indicator is the 10 year-2 year treasury rates, (now 0.56).  After so many years, recession is finally upon us. I believed recession was impossible without inversion and indeed it was but NOW IT WILL ARRIVE! See below … Continue reading →

The effective tax cut for the first year 2018 (declining every year after) boosts real income by 2.2%. The tax cut effect pushes up inflation and real income for 6 months then falls off. So I expect 2.0 core inflation … Continue reading →

Good news is that it has bottomed out and has nowhere to go but up! ROC shows above the line Jan 2014-Jul 2016. And from Jul 2016 below the line. 10.60 is also at the bottom historically. The change in … Continue reading →

Risk off TLT to Oil on the macd shows momentum now returning to the upside.  The recent momentum down was less than last year. This means risk off will be stronger this year. Oil will stall out and fall in … Continue reading →

The oil macd weekly needs the 12 week (red) X the 26 week (black). It’s approx a 18-24mo cycle.. See below that the USD from (Oct-on) won’t be helping oil to stay up as in 2017. 1.    The USD falling … Continue reading →

Now we know ccpi will be 2.0 in 2018. When in Fed raising mode, CCPI > 2.0 leads to Fed tightening policies. 2016 is a guide with many vix events. As well, now that vix has bottomed, it has no … Continue reading →

Credit cards are the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the economy and overall delinquencies. Below is the rate of change in delinquencies (an early indicator). It is fairly noisy but is the first loan item to go delinquent. And … Continue reading →

Below is a table showing the VIX 20+ events per year: Note 2017 has had low VIX, low inflation (CCPI), and the year after election in its favor.  It loses 2 next year. Oil usually falls in the year after … Continue reading →

As the crisis onsets, the pullbacks and corrections (ROC14) get bigger as VIX rises: Mar 2007   -5% Jul 2007   -6% Nov 2007  -7% Jan 2008   -12% Oct 2008   -32% And as seen below, VIX crises after holidays: June (sometimes), Oct, … Continue reading →