Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

With CCPI on the rise, is a 1y long term TLT hold policy wise?  CCPI has been falling for 7 months but is now on the rise. Also monthly ccpi now 0.22 or 2.69% annualized. Average ccpi for 2017 has … Continue reading →

Unless VIX hits 20 in December, it will take time to build up risk off conditions (the above 10wkma line needs to move upwards).  BUT VIX has started to move up to a 12 base line launching into a risk … Continue reading →

Vix will rise to a base of 12 next year 15 wkma (week moving average).

Real personal income was increasing at 3-5% between 2005-2008 (a good economy).  Now it’s 1.3%. It’s the weakest value since early 2014. Oil prices fell rapidly in 2014-2015 increasing real income. As oil prices now rise, personal income has been … Continue reading →

S&P yearly returns follow a normal distribution of sorts. Stock returns follow a surge year followed by 2 ‘fall off years’. The surge years seem to be right after elections (2009 and 2013 were boosted by QE). The 2017 surge … Continue reading →

Side note…boomers working more than ever…and demographic decline.   And of course, declining births over time…     From title, economic boost from 2016 to early 2017 has worn off. The boost from 2013 stock rally wore off into 2014 … Continue reading →

No pullback or correction occurred in Sep-Oct.  This would’ve increased the VIX to a target 16+ level by end of December. It hasn’t happened.  The VIX is very low now and has bottomed at 10-11. End of Run VIX ROC14 … Continue reading →

In the last week, Fed Futures rise rapidly indicating a more aggressive Fed in Dec!

As inflation is weak, the economy is also weak as seen in 2014. Throughout 2016, ccpi was 2.0 and economy was relatively strong. This was due to low oil prices from 2014-2015. Starting at the beginning of 2017, the economy … Continue reading →

VIX had a sustained 15 in April of 1 week and a smaller one day in August.  This case would be ideal for end of December into early Jan. See Nov-Dec 2014 and Nov-Dec 2015 below: