Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

As stated in June, there will be no run (-10%) in Sep-Oct although a 5% pullback is possible over budget issues. The real reason for USD weakness is some inflation in the euro zone which has caused the euro to … Continue reading →

Of the 3 Fed rate rises promised this year, two have been delivered.  Now December is left.  The next correction will be January after the rise in December. For now a “pause”, SPY will rise even higher so correction in … Continue reading →

Core inflation is at its lowest 1.74 (need 2.0). The Fed inflation forecast is bad.  In January, they talked of rising inflation and in March when rates went up last time: “Janet Yellen, chair of the Fed’s board of governors, … Continue reading →

In 2008, oil rolled over beginning of July: The roll over in oil occurs May-Jul time frame every 3 years…MACD weekly is a good indicator for oil direction.   In the OFC model, oil has been satisfied and will have … Continue reading →

Oil is flattening out/sideways.  It’s losing momentum and is ready to roll over. It will roll over in Sep this time instead of end of June. AND Fed is likely to raise rates again in Dec…job numbers (Uclaims YoY) are … Continue reading →

The last 2 months had low core inflation Mar (-0.1) and Apr (0.1) but it will revert back to mean of 0.183. Core inflation has been driven higher by obamacare and rent (shelter).  These trends are strong and will continue … Continue reading →

As USD has X 40wkma to downside, oil will rise/sideways and inflation rises for 3 mo.  Oil is now tightly correlated to SPY preceding 1 week only. 3 mo of oil rise/sideways will cause ccpi to recover to 2.0. So … Continue reading →

  And just core: Core inflation grows again in april.. Energy has turned up (fall in Mar is energy related -3.2!) now 1.1 New vehicles drop less Used drop a lot less Shelter jumped 0.1 to 0.3…shelter consistent at 0.3 … Continue reading →

Oil will X back above 40wkma. This is good as a July Xover is better. CCPI fell to 1.9 in April.  This should rise to 2.0 by June fed meeting .  USD is falling a bit in response to ccpi … Continue reading →

Oil has X the 40 wkma. This is fundamental to any -10% correction.  So global liquidity is starting to dry up. The OFC model : Oil has now X 40wkma Fed Rate raises Sep Calendar Sep after holidays With a … Continue reading →