Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Recessions occur in election years as market looks for a bailout. Until the election…the staircase up continues. Good depiction here….SPY The issue after the next election and collapse in Sep-Oct 2020 will be how high taxes? Will it kill volatility? … Continue reading →

July will be similar to 2014 in that oil will become a bear market again. BUT as July 2014 had a -2.5% fall, this July will have a similar pullback but no correction. Expect another pullback 2-4% in Apr-May. The … Continue reading →

As discussed below, the macro adjustments for the recent recession are shown.  From an individual level, the chart below explains it better- Of course, we are in the 2-3y lead up to a recession at this time. But this is … Continue reading →

Once oil rolls over the model resumes.  Why oil?  Oil is the global liquidity indicator and also drives inflation. The best time to profit is when the Fed “shakes the tree.” The indicators for the model (OFC) are: Oil 200dma … Continue reading →

  Soon USD rise will cause oil to roll over.  Frexit threats will weaken Euro as it did UKpound.  An oil rollover usually occurs in July: July 2008, July 2011, and July 2014. Relationship oil to SPY ROC14.  See below … Continue reading →

Inflation rises Fed raises rates (2005-Jul 2006) Highly indebted delinquencies start to rise (2006-2008) A breaking point arrives and Fed starts to drop rates RAPIDLY (Sep 2007-Dec 2008) USD falls rapidly (2007-Jul 2008) Oil and commodity prices spike ($70-$150) causing … Continue reading →

2006 had rising rates and inflation as now BUT most of 2006 had risk on.  Therefore any pullback in SPY was very short followed by a rally. Formula is Risk Off + FPC.  But for 2006 it was Risk ON … Continue reading →

Rate of change in delinquencies is at the same level as early 2006. It should cross 0 this year.  In 2006 PE ratio was much less and the SPY was on a tear (+15%) so it’s only similar in that … Continue reading →

Good Link- Restructuring Boom Business 2017   Estimates of Mortgage Volumes show decline this year Inflation Chart shows rising this year… In 2007, delinquencies started to rise. So far rates are still declining but should show rise next year 2018. … Continue reading →

The best time to profit is when the Fed changes policy and the market reacts to it.  All other times have low returns or are ‘noisy’. Those that are always invested waste too much time and energy for low returns. … Continue reading →