Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Recession 2001, 2008 and 2018…    

Gas Buddy Rises So Leaning to SPY flat or more likely up Also: The Fed: Fed to hold interest rates while Congress debates stimulus Budget settles by May and by then charts should show risk off. With FPC in June, … Continue reading →

Equation: Risk Off + FPC (Fed Policy Change) + VIX 15+ -0.6%- Market Reaction (correlates with VIX 15+) Unfortunately, Risk off hasn’t occurred in January.  While Gas Buddy has come off, normally you need a build up of risk off … Continue reading →

And Risk On/Off shows very close due to X next week:   and risk on/off stocks: AND the FED doesn’t like this at all (Change in Gas Prices Yr/Yr): Highest change in 5 years!

Gross cpi has surged in a big way from 1.7 to 2.1…hence the ‘3 fed rate rises’ stance this year.  This takes TLT off the table for any short term runs. BUT good news for recession next year.  You need … Continue reading →

The best time to buy TLT is when fed rates are falling (rates need’nt be 0 but decreasing) and  after a spy crash: First happens SPY crash: Then fed drops rates: Then TLT pops after the crash Nov 1-Dec Fed … Continue reading →

This is great news!  As predicted Risk Off arriving fast from a low level!  Looks like inflation is coming off as well. Things change fast these days…hence the need for “react” and not too much prediction (which is for fun … Continue reading →

Risk off oil is 2.6/3 weeks away based on slope -0.05625 per week. Risk off stocks is 2 weeks away. When Risk off is triggered and Fed Meeting Feb 1 happens, SPY short is on with SPY HA red or … Continue reading →

The two risk off springs: TLT:SPY and TLT:$WTIC have been rewound (both show risk-on for now).  They are ready for rebound so this is good news for September and 2018. The risk-off charts usually X in July-Aug. They need to … Continue reading →

SPY short or TLT strategies aren’t possible until risk off. Basically…risk on since July and with oil since August! But now ROC is +ve.  So likely to change to the upside in 1-2 months. In order to play Sep-Oct SPY … Continue reading →