Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Gas buddy must turn before SPY short again. Gas buddy and trump optimism overrode the FPC. But this happens rarely. longer term chart….2014 (taper),2015 (0), 2016 (rise), 2017 (rise) Oil and Trump kept the correction away for Jan. Next FPC … Continue reading →

Due to magnitude of TLT response, I believe now that 2017 will be closer to 2008 and TLT will not be a play until after October. Recession may be pushed until 2018 also BUT Q4 2017 probable. In Jan, TLT … Continue reading →

In each case ccpi > 2.0 and Fed is raising rates.   Short SPY Jan 3 open (Dec 30&31 RHA) Sell shorts Jan 9 close Buy Jan 10 Open TLT long Sell Jan 18 (Wed) close – hold 10-11 days … Continue reading →

Bond yields spike before every recession.  This raises interest rates and changes the social mood which causes the downtrend in economy. Yield Spike: Recession indicators: Yield Spike CCPI > 2.0 see 2007,2008 Unemployment Claims rise YoY see 2007,2008 Other indicators … Continue reading →

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes…Mark Twain Unfortunately, we live in a new era although similar to Rome.  Politics today is a flag in the breeze. Politicians do not understand what’s different today than other periods like the … Continue reading →

Even though a TLT run is possible in Jan, the best conditions are: Fed rates 0  (PRIMARY)…Falling see 2008 or flat 2011 ccpi > 2.0 SPY falls 25%+ (In 2011, also fall 10-15% in SPY) see Jun-Sep 2011, and Jan … Continue reading →

FXC is a great leading indicator for January short!  See Jan 2014, Jan 2015, and Jan 2016.  So the setup for SPY short is perfect starting Jan 3!   Now later in the year…longer SPY shorts will be entertained as … Continue reading →

The rcp model was the closest…so once again the simplest model works the best… http://acsh.org/news/2016/11/09/election-polls-were-wrong-and-why-rcp-better-nate-silver-10423 ” RealClearPolitics’ Simple Model Is Superior to Nate Silver’s Algorithm That sounds impressive, until one considers that RealClearPolitics (my former employer), nailed 49 states. Their … Continue reading →

Crazy politics is a consequence of a slow growth / debt fueled economy. As debt goes up gdp slows: Debt Denialists Debt Slows Economic Growth FROM LINK ABOVE: “Doom Loop” of cheap financing leading to excessive debt growth followed by … Continue reading →

Trump is unlikely without a market crash and yes Reagan was a joke as well as George W BUT they both had market mayhem and bad economy pushing for them. I believe the odds Hillary 66% and Trump 33%. If … Continue reading →