Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

As there’s no FPC, Hillary will most likely win as the market will not fall significantly. In Dec, Fed will raise rates and market downtrend starts Jan 2. SPY short is the plan on Jan 2.  The  sell point will … Continue reading →

Most likely there will be no FPC (Fed Policy Change) on Sep 21.  Yellin’s comments of a rate rise this year imply a Dec rate rise not Sep. The market will still go down in October due to the election … Continue reading →

As in Oct 2008, liquidity issues will contain the rise of TLT until after the election. This leaves the SPY short strategy for Oct 3 if the Fed increases rates Sep 21.  Sell SPY shorts 2 weeks later on Friday … Continue reading →

Going back to January of this year when there was a FPC on Dec 17…AND TLT is correcting down now so a relative bargain. When the FPC occurs in September, the idea is to: Oct 3 at open buy SPY … Continue reading →

After June FMtg, SPY rebounded quickly as there was no Fed Rate Rise. The July 27 meeting also had no rate rise, so we wait for the next Fed Meeting Sep 21 (cash positions). As ccpi is 2.23, they can’t … Continue reading →

and TLT…buy first green (TLT), green (VIX) and red (SPY) after Fed Mtg Jul 27 this year (Jul 29 the Fri or Aug 1 the Mon). in 2008 similar, Aug 5 was the Fed meeting. Note Aug 7 the bull … Continue reading →

This chart is good as it leads an entry for TLT by 1 month.  It has now crossed below indicating a bear market for a few months. So after a X event, watch for an entry opportunity when Wm turns … Continue reading →

This chart means recession for sure this year and a major market crash 35%+.  The Fed will have to raise rates again most likely in June meeting which will be the last rate rise for the year before they drop … Continue reading →

The SPY market will stay in a trading range until Jun/July where it gets OS again. TLT will get OB briefly in July.  When it pulls back in July, the buy will take place.  TLT will then rise from Aug … Continue reading →

YoY chart is above. No zero crossing yet BUT a good sign that unemployment insurance claims have leveled and are no longer falling. Month over month chart is below. It’s the longest 3 month period of rising claims in the … Continue reading →