Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Idea is to play 1st round TLT starting mid-July when TLT RWm and exits. First sell will be Sep FedMtg followed by another buy Oct 31/Nov 1 and sell Dec. Below are ccpi and TLT in 2008. The pattern is … Continue reading →

Inflation rose again … So rate rise next week and TLT may go up $2 next week but performance flat as rate rise will dampen the effect. Rate rise enviornment until ccpi < 2.0: TLT rise/sideways … lackluster SPY down … Continue reading →

The TLT:SPY ratio has surged to a new recent high which was expected.   So sell all TLT on Friday at close.

The end of month is the best time to sell TLT when there’s a good run ($10). The end of month effect is even more pronounced on a TLT good run than a SPY good run. Even SPY pulls back … Continue reading →

AND in 2008, liquidity crunch in Aug and Sep led to higher and higher TLT levels with some big reds along the way.. TLT:SPY ratio looks on track and the ROC for it should hit 10% before some peak is … Continue reading →

TLT volumes are still low as most are still on vacation.  SPY is falling as expected and will continue to fall through January. Oil will resume its fall and TLT will start to rise again at that time. Any month … Continue reading →

Monthly gas shows negative indicating TLT gas / oil part is a go. Most important is the FPC or fed policy change. Fed policy change the best time to profit. One chart for showing change in fed policy is the … Continue reading →

So Mon Dec 28 uptrend resumes on TLT. Christmas rally on low volume is suppressing TLT until Monday after the holidays. Dec 28-31 week will show strength and first week January will be very strong. Mon morning will show: VIX … Continue reading →

Vix is falling and low volumes show a small Christmas Rally occurring.  This is good news for buying TLT on Dec 28.  It’s possible to get it a little cheaper on Monday. Let the volatility of the Christmas holiday work … Continue reading →

TLT will go green now (GHA) all the way until Jan 20 when ccpi is announced.  If ccpi < 2.0, then it will continue, otherwise it may go sideways after that. So the good news is the sideways motion of … Continue reading →