Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

After SPY is overbought, the next month has a pullback and the VIX rising to 20.  The base VIX has moved to 10 so the range may have moved from 12-20 to 10-18. If ccpi hits 2.0, TLT is the … Continue reading →

It looks like the large TLT play could be Nov-Dec this year after QE is shutoff AND ccpi 2.0.  It seems the condition for a large TLT run is when QE is turned off and ccpi 2.0.  This occurred Apr-Aug … Continue reading →

See above HA for TLT after cpi announcement on Fri., March 15 and below OHLC bars for the same period. Above is the TLT:SPY ratio for July 2011.  Notice the large uptick at the end of the month. Similar to … Continue reading →

CCPI is very close at 1.95. Need 2.0/1.99 for Fed to act. Watch for 1) rising VIX 2) TLT:SPY ratio X 40 wkma If the above two happen after the cpi is announced next month, July 22, then TLT will … Continue reading →

The VIX is in an uptrend…it went below 13 for  6 weeks this time….   M2 Money Velocity (Quarterly & 5 Year Change) shows declining effects of Fed stimulus

See M2 money velocity at 50 year low…   But rate of change also low..and ‘recovery’ was the shortest ever   VIX is rising now BUT it must hit 17 in order to play rebound   http://www.cnbc.com/id/101749088 World Bank: ‘Now … Continue reading →

I looked closer at the behavior of SPY when the VIX was as low as now (Mar 2013).  In this period, ccpi was 2.0 but still a low VIX would indicate a low rebound opportunity as sure enough looking at … Continue reading →

Looks like gas buddy peak was end of May.  As gas buddy is falling fast now, looks like the next rebound opportunity will be July 30-early August after Fed meeting.  Major run ppportunity will be August. ECB event has been … Continue reading →

Looks like SPY rebound strategy will continue as even a strong May and Jun (unlikely) still leads to a ccpi less than 2.0.  Gas buddy will fall away this month it looks like and gcpi will finish below 2.0 Jun … Continue reading →

The VIX has fallen to a low since March 2013.  TLT had a good run in April 2013 after a reported ccpi of 2.0 in March (Feb CPI).  I think it will be close this time but not 2.0 and … Continue reading →