Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Deflation forces are still there and will continue to build hence why economy has low growth and does not achieve escape velocity.  Something has to give since debt acceleration has slowed.   http://www.marketwatch.com/story/over-50-of-americans-struggle-with-home-affordability-2014-06-03?siteid=yhoof2  What’s more, at least 15% of American … Continue reading →

VIX is still falling..there may be a rise after Fed mtg It’s simply a wait for VIX to rise mid-end of month…perhaps July CPI day is Jun 17.  If cpi near 2.0 the Fed may make noises and market will … Continue reading →

Inflation will fall this month from 2.0…last May the change in gas prices was Apr -3.8 to +1.26 in May a positive swing of +5.  This month has fallen from Apr 3.62 to May 0.3 or a negative swing of … Continue reading →

The bump in gas buddy is over and it continues to fall… So VIX should start to rise in 1-3 weeks with a low in SPY Jun 18-25. Anticipate buying spy rebound July 3 at close as holiday week trading … Continue reading →

With gas buddy now falling, the best buy zone will be a rebound starting 1.5-2mo from now.  With FM on Jun 18, rebound should start Jun 18-25. The VIX and GHA will indicate which day. As ccpi is nowhere near … Continue reading →

It seems VIX runs between 13 and 17.  The sell zone would be below 13 and the buy zone above 17.  The next major rebound will occur after VIX goes above 17 most likely after it falls below 13. The … Continue reading →

It looks like the next major rebound will start Jun 18/19.  A small TLT rebound may occur at end of May after gcpi 2.0 is reported for April.  The buy signal is the first TLT GHA after cpi is reported … Continue reading →

  VIX is now rising so May 2 is a possible SPY buy. Green HA occurs on May 2 with nfp confirmation is the signal. This down event from here until April 30 is due to tapering. ROC- is still … Continue reading →

The St Louis Fed monthly gas change (% change from last year) clearly shows inflation muted and hence why stocks have gone so high and no TLT runs in 2012/2013 (2010 and 2011 had great TLT runs).

Negative liberty is the freedom ‘from’ and positive liberty is freedom ‘to’. Relevant to this is the following excerpt. From the book ‘Myths of Happiness’ : ‘ Because diminishing negative experiences (like the worry associated with debt) brings a three-to … Continue reading →