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After the second dip, a 12% run in 2 months. Feb 2 had a 2% dip. The first dot above blue line in Feb indicated the beginning of the uptrend (2nd Fri in Feb).

CBOE CHARTS   VIX breakout was Oct 4 at 1245 NYT when it broke above 15.    

  The VIX peaked end of april then fell from May-mid Jun a $17 run. For now red and blue lines rising means 1 wk up and 1 wk down until VIX blue line falls at Fed mtg Nov 7.

SPY will fall for a few days as a yield spike (Tlt down 3% in 2 days) has occurred due to mini oil shock. The red line for a pullback is 291.  Market is due to open up below this … Continue reading →

ROC5 is a good indicator to show a reversion to the mean effect on a weekly basis. On a monthly basis, the chart shows a strong July / Aug and a weak Sep implying a strong Oct indeed. ROC5 trend … Continue reading →

  And core inflation also dropped… And Sep due for a bigger drop… This is good for SPY in the fall after fed mtg…

The SPY ROC will go down and down until fed mtg 3wks from today. Sep will be a – ROC month. July was a +4 and August a +3 so reversion to mean brings spy to a -.  Also the … Continue reading →

Oil has been outperforming SPY and TLT: I create 2 new links: Oil:SPY Oil:TLT Right now Oil will outperform as SPY will go sideways and TLT goes down… See USO june last year! 30% mo rise rate For comparison: Apr … Continue reading →

Gas has been falling for 2 weeks so Fed will be neutral on this meeting. Notice how gas prices were rising before the Jan Fed Mtg! WKLY GAS TREND However, oil shows a new uptrend so gas may reverse by … Continue reading →

Last year cpi was very low (May especially) so cpi (Jul 12) could go to 2.8 or more for June. Watch for TLT 12dma to have significant downtrend (last 2 weeks of July before Fed Mtg Aug 1). Currently, the … Continue reading →