Category Archives: Uncategorized

Yes the charts have X and gr,gr,red has occurred BUT the fed has not indicated a policy change.  And greek crisis is a one-off not required to change direction… Notice the rise last july followed by retreat and gain in … Continue reading →

Notice how it fell below the 10 wkma in late March. Here it fell below in mid-April.Good news here is it’s getting cheap and valued thereby driving powerful bounces in Sep/Oct and Dec/Jan. Both lines must X before TLT considered … Continue reading →

OIL has X 40wkma first time in a year, so TLT off for a while! TLT to oil will have to X 10wkma before tlt considered a bull again. These charts also cover TLT X 50dma which is also bullish. … Continue reading →

I anticipate these will make turns by Fed Mtg in September 16 or 1 wk after…. Here below 50dma and 200 dma!

TLT:$USD shows the best relationship for transitions of TLT bull/bear… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT%3A%24USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29065458250 You clearly see 2013…QE 2014…Taper 2015 Jan No QE 2015 Feb-on below line waiting for new environment/regime   Also VIX weekly has been added to Reference section. It shows … Continue reading →

With inflation lower, SPY can go higher and VIX lower. However, Yellin talked about Fed who should have risen rates sooner in 2004-2006.  Q2 will be stronger GDP wise than Q1 so July Fed Meeting is also possible.  Again wait … Continue reading →

Reason is core inflation fell again and note lower than last year at same time… Ironically, SPY can go higher at this time as inflation is lower again. But interest rate rise expectations were increased, so upside is limited maybe … Continue reading →

For TLT, new criteria for entry is the 3rd day green and vix ha > 15 at open.  This ensures noise is filtered out. List for TLT entry: 1) After FM 2) 3rd day GHA at open 3) VIX GHA … Continue reading →

So SPY will have problems this summer which will benefit TLT as seen last year. VIX last year… BUT VIX is higher at this point so if VIX > 15 go earlier..

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-on-market-liquidity-2015-5 Rosenberg writes: “The rapid swings in the foreign exchange, oil, equity, and bond markets have stamped an exclamation mark on this issue — and the Fed has not even begun to snug conditions and embark on its first tightening … Continue reading →