Category Archives: Uncategorized

Recessions occur every 8 years when inflation is low… 1972…73, 75..76 (high inflation), 1980…81 1984 (inflation high so 2nd recession), 1991..92 2000-2001, 2008..2009 2016 This explains why 2012 had no recession.  Even Nassim Taleb mentions that the Fed has been … Continue reading →

For non-leveraged positions, SPY/TLT (0cpn) positions use TLT X 200dma as indicating a policy change: Apr 2009-Apr 2010 QE-SPY                1y Apr 2010-Aug 2010 no QE – TLT        4mo (inflation low at ccpi 1.0 so QE expected shortly) Nov 2010-Apr 2011  … Continue reading →

TLT has X the 200dma and returned to bull mode see also TLT:Oil and TLT:SPY X 10wkma.  As it is Aug, TLT is not played until Sep. when vacation ends and volumes return. TLT should fade in the first 2 … Continue reading →

A spreadsheet was created to estimate the end of policy stimulus. Estimating from the fall of M2V in Q2 2006 to Q1 2015 brings a 0 crossing event in 2038 when in theory monetary stimulus will fail. The Wall Street … Continue reading →

Margin debt grows with each cycle…from Lance Roberts- Margin debt grows by Fibonacci levels 38% (approx.) higher each time. From Investopedia- Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it … Continue reading →

The Fed may not raise interest rates after all due to weak demand see core PCE price index (lowest levels since 2010).  They may allow ‘gravity’ to take over as monthly SPY MACD indicates a ‘roll over’ in momentum.  The … Continue reading →

As the bear begins in September (below 200dma), SPY will fall 20-30 points and Oil to $25 from Sep 2015-Sep 2016 (there will be a few small rebounds with LOWER highs). SPY will fall another 20 points from Sep 2016-Nov … Continue reading →

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/smartest-money-liquidating-stocks-record-pace-theyre-selling-everything-that%E2%80%99s-not-b But while we knew that both “vanilla” institutions and hedge funds were actively selling in the public markets, it was not until last week when we got the most candid glimpse of just how much. We described it last … Continue reading →

Here you can see transitions clearly 2012 before qe 2013 qe 2014 taper 2015 ecb qe before int rate rise   ALSO OIL down less than 1% for the week So the current SPY issue is very minor..   SPY … Continue reading →

We’ve not had inflation issues the last few years BUT yellin has hinted about too much asset inflation.  When does SPY fall?  When the FED policy acts against inflation AND the economy is weak.  At that point the Fed has … Continue reading →