SPY has been useful with Q4 +2.7% and Q1 -6.2% showing a slowing momentum (slowest in 3 years)

which leads to CPI surges and recession.

However, bonds and CPI surges are the trackers now.

You can never win with technicals alone. You have to ‘marry’ technicals and fundamentals.

Fundamentals are not what you read on the internet or newsletters. They include weak economy, CPI surges, and earnings seasons. Or others like Fed on a rampage in 2022 raising rates. Other fundamentals such as CPI (as opposed to CPI surges), GDP, etc. are useless for making money.

Steps for a run (in this cycle)-

1. CPI surge Fundamental
2. Bonds uptrend for 2 months Technical
3. Earnings Season Fundamental

‘Reversals’ occur in earnings seasons.

Modified from yesterday when SPY hiccups this year:

1. Jul-Aug
2. Oct-Nov (this means no Fed drop in September or October!)

Only 1 drop in Dec. this year in order to bring CPI < 3.0.