I expect gcpi to fall further so this allows a stronger SPY response off the next low.  Gas buddy is the lowest since 2010 (3.19) so consumers will have plenty to spend.  Once again the Fed doesn’t care about bubbles only inflation.

Nov. 21-27 will be after the Fed minutes.  The market should drop to 173-175 in this time frame (ROC20 will be 176 in this time). If SPY hits the bottom of the BBd and ROC20 is a minus, I say buy for Christmas rally. This reminds me of February this year where ROC20 is a minus and SPY hits the bottom of BBd.

During this SPY bull every ROC- event was followed by a significant rally. See Dec 2012, Feb 2013, Apr, Jun, Aug, and Oct. The rally lasted 1 month from the bottom.  The biggest drops (Jun and Aug) are due to taper talk when gcpi is close to 2.0. The last bottom was Oct. 9 and the peak was Nov. 6. Peak to trough is 3 weeks. So I would expect the trough at -1 (low trough due to gcpi being so low) to be Nov. 25-27.