The VIX has fallen to a low since March 2013. TLT had a good run in April 2013 after a reported ccpi of 2.0 in March (Feb CPI). I think it will be close this time but not 2.0 and 2.0 or 1.99 is required. So I would expect gas buddy to fall away in July. On Jun 17, I expect gcpi to be slightly lower and ccpi to be 1.90.
Perhaps July CPI day will show ccpi of 2.0 but this depends on gas buddy staying elevated through June (last June gas buddy fell). This would lead to a market correction in August perhaps to the 200dma or more if gas buddy stays up.
GCPI is weakly connected to TLT moves indicating a future direction of CCPI.
Also another sign of building inflation…
Rail Traffic Posts New Highs, Jobless Claims Continue to Decline
ALSO:
Interest rates are entering the twilight zone
Central banks are only storing up problems for the future by sticking to printing money
Employment to Population Ratio same for past 3 months
We’ll only know that for sure as the recovery continues and indicators like the labor force participation rate (the proportion of the population who either have a job or are looking for one) rise significantly. For what it’s worth, it was unchanged in May at 62.8 percent.
Credit Flow Investor 